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News about Climate Change and our Planet

The Austrian winemakers switching grapes to account for climate change

The effects of climate change are changing Austria’s wine industry. Rising summer temperatures mean many wines are losing acidity and tasting less fresh. But some winemakers are hoping alternative grape varieties could save the day. On the shores of Lake…

Arizona’s water troubles show how climate change is reshaping the West

Jay Famiglietti moved to Arizona this year after a career using satellites to study how the worst drought in a millennium was sapping groundwater beneath the American West. He has documented that the decline of groundwater in California’s Central Valley…

First Recorded Stand-Up Comedy Sketch from 500 Years Ago Discovered in 15th Century Manuscript

– University of Cambridge via SWNS

While this old parchment page may look like one out of a wizard’s spellbook, it’s actually what scholars believe to be the world’s oldest recorded stand-up comedy routine.

In the year 1,480, a household cleric and tutor to a noble family named Richard Heege went to a feast where there was a minstrel performing a three-part act. Heege recorded as much as he could remember, opening with “By me, Richard Heege, because I was at that feast and did not have a drink.”

That is illustrative of where the story goes from there—a performance relevant to the humor enjoyed in Britain today, and one which colors the high Middle Ages as a time of artistic liberty, social mobility, and vigorous nightlife.

Heege’s booklet contains three texts gleaned from the jester’s material: a Hunting of the Hare story featuring a killer rabbit, a mock sermon in prose in which three kings eat so much that 24 bulls explode out of their stomachs and begin sword fighting, and an alliteration nonsense verse entitled The Battle of Brackonwet.

Reminiscent of Geoffrey Chaucer’s writings, or Monty Python’s killer rabbit of Caerbannog sketch in their film Monty Python and The Holy Grail, The Hunting of the Hare is a rhyming burlesque romance, meaning the frivolous is important and the serious is treated lightly.

In it, two fictional peasants get involved with a series of hijinks that includes a cany coney who kicks one of them in the head.

In The Battle of Brackonwet, Robin Hood, killer bumblebees, and jousting bears color a tale full of nonsense within what would have been Mr. Heege and the minstrel’s local neighborhood on the border of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire where Mr. Heege lived.

The texts were found in the National Library of Scotland by Dr. James Wade, of Cambridge’s English Faculty, who recently wrote a paper on them explaining that such material is extremely rare, but offers a wondrous glimpse into life not only among England’s medieval middle-class, but the skill and appreciation for minstrels.

“Here we have a self-made entertainer with very little education creating really original, ironic material. To get an insight into someone like that from this period is incredibly rare and exciting,” Dr. Wade said.

“You can find echoes of this minstrel’s humor in [today’s] shows like Mock the Week, situational comedies, and slapstick. The self-irony and making audiences the butt of the joke are still very characteristic of British stand-up comedy.”

MORE LAUGHS: Watch the Hilarious Speeches as Jon Stewart is Honored With Mark Twain Prize at Kennedy Center

During the Middle Ages minstrels roamed between fairs, taverns, and baronial halls to entertain with songs and stories either across the country or along a local circuit. Many had day jobs, such as a plowman or peddler, but gigged through the nights and weekends.

“These texts remind us that festive entertainment was flourishing at a time of growing social mobility,” said Dr. Wade. “[They] give us a snapshot of medieval life being lived well.”

MORE INTERESTING HISTORY: Smells Like History: Academics Recreate the Lost Smells of Europe for Museums

“People back then partied a lot more than we do today, so minstrels had plenty of opportunities to perform. They were really important figures in people’s lives right across the social hierarchy.”

It also shows that what we sometimes think of as a society of science-denying religious tyranny created not only these talented comics but people who enjoyed their work enough to copy it down.

MORE LITERARY HISTORY: Dozens of J.R.R. Tolkien’s Paintings and Maps Are Now Online to Inspire Adventure

Mr. Heege worked for a noble family and would have been considered right and proper, yet he appears to have had a sense of humor and to have enjoyed literature that others may have dismissed as too lowbrow to preserve.

What else can we conclude when the man committed the minstrel’s rhymes of “Drink you to me and I to you and hold your cup up high — God loves neither horse nor mare, but merry men that in the cup can stare” to memory well enough to write it down?

SHARE This Truly Special Piece of English Literary History With Your Friends… 

Jerry Shenk: The Gospel of ‘Global Warming’

People, generally, acknowledge that climate changes, but most remain skeptical that it’s man-made or apocalyptic. Rather than “settled science,” global warming activism has become a cult-like evangelistic movement outside normally-accepted skeptical approaches to the rest of science. In fact, pagans…

GOP Secures Massive Gas Pipeline Approval In Debt Ceiling Deal, Angering Eco-Groups

The highly-anticipated debt ceiling package House Republicans and President Biden announced on Sunday includes a provision fast-tracking a massive 303-mile West Virginia-to-Virginia natural gas pipeline project for approval. The unexpected carveout green-lighting the billion-dollar Mountain Valley Pipeline — which is…

Frank Drake, SETI visionary, born on this date

Frank Drake: Old man with white hair and glasses wearing a blue suit and shirt.
Astronomer Frank Drake speaking at Cornell University in October 2017. Image via Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Astronomer Frank Drake

May 28, 2023, would be the 93rd birthday of astronomer Frank Drake. Sadly, he passed away recently, on September 2, 2022. Drake was an early visionary in the search for other civilizations in our Milky Way galaxy.

In 1960, Drake spearheaded Project Ozma, the first modern attempt to listen for radio transmissions from otherworldly intelligences.

Then, on November 1, 1961, Drake, Carl Sagan and other astronomers met at the site of the Green Bank Telescope in Green Bank, West Virginia. And at that meeting, Drake presented what has become known as the Drake equation.

Scientists and others found the Drake equation fascinating then … and they still do. The Drake equation is a tool for contemplating how many intelligent civilizations might be capable of communicating with us from elsewhere in the galaxy. From Drake’s formulation of the equation – and the 1961 meeting in Green Bank – the field of research and scientific organization known as SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, was born.

What is the Drake equation?

The Drake equation is a mathematical formula for thinking about how many civilizations beyond Earth might be able to communicate with us. Nowadays when you hear astronomers speak of life beyond Earth, they might be focused on biosignatures. That’s where they are looking for evidence of life, but for simple or multicellular life. For example, possible life forms under rocks on Mars or in the atmosphere of Venus. However, the Drake equation focuses on something different. In fact, it’s the search for advanced and communicating civilizations.

Thus, here is the Drake equation: N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

Breaking down the Drake equation

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible
R* = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with civilizations that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space

As originally formulated, the Drake equation is less a true mathematical formula and more a way to start a conversation. So the value of N – the number of civilizations with which we might communicate – is difficult to determine if you don’t have solid numbers on all the factors that need to be considered.

So do astronomers know the rate of star formation in our Milky Way? Yes, approximately. The rate of star formation is somewhere around 3 solar masses per year. Next, do they know how many stars form planets? Of course, we didn’t know that number in 1961, but now we do. In fact, the answer is thought to be that most, if not all, of them form planets.

But, as you go onward in the equation, the state of our knowledge begins to falter. First, we don’t know the mean number of planets that could support life per star with planets. Second, we don’t know the fraction of life-supporting planets that develop life. And so on.

Drake equation revisited

Additionally, a wonderful thing about the Drake equation, is it continues to inspire fresh thinking about extraterrestrial life among astronomers. So in 2016, Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan put their heads together to publish a paper in the journal Astrobiology in which they presented the Drake equation in a new light. Then they noted that technological advancements in astronomy had made better estimates possible of two Drake equation factors:

The fraction of stars with planets, fp, is now estimated to be 1.0, meaning all stars have planets

The number of planets per star where conditions are suitable for life, ne, is now estimated to be 0.2, meaning one in five planets can support life

A case for rewriting the Drake equation

In May 2021, John Gertz made a case for rewriting the Drake equation in a paper accepted for publication by the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society. Here are Gertz’s thoughts on the Drake equations variables:

R*, the mean rate of star formation changes over the history of our galaxy. Plus, what about other galaxies? The rate of star formation would be different. In his May 2021 paper, Gertz suggested changing R* to Ns. That’s for the number of candidate stars in the Milky Way that fall within our field of view. He pointed out that 80% of these stars would be stars not so very different from our sun.

Fp, the fraction of stars that have planets, is no longer a big unknown. That’s because we now know that planets around stars are quite common.

Ne, the number of rocky planets in a star’s habitable zone, is too limiting. Plus the presence of an atmosphere and water are important considerations. But so are the countless moons where life could exist around planets outside a star’s habitable zone. So Gertz recommends replacing this variable with Ntb. That stands for the total number of bodies that could support life on or beneath their surfaces.

Currently, Fl, the fraction of planets that develop life, is unknowable. Also, it’s still not understood the origin of life on Earth, much less how common or rare it is in the universe.

Fi, the fraction of planets with life that develop intelligence, is also unknowable. If we don’t know how common life may be in the universe, we don’t know how common intelligent life may be.

More of Gertz’s suggested revisions

Fc, the fraction of intelligent civilizations technologically capable and actively trying to communicate with us, doesn’t take into consideration the vast expanses that communication would have to travel between our home worlds. But we could also unintentionally stumble across a signal (perhaps the Wow! signal?). Then a better variable, Gertz says, is Fd, the fraction of technological life that is detectable by any means. However, the problem may not be the civilization sending us a message. Instead, the problem could be that we aren’t advanced enough to detect or receive it.

L, the length of time a civilization is communicative, depends on how long they can sustain themselves before they either self-destruct or something external (asteroid, supernova or the like) takes them out. We don’t know the answer, either for ourselves or for an alien civilization. This variable is the one that Carl Sagan considered most uncertain. Gertz’s ideas about L mesh nicely with Avi Loeb’s assertion that ‘Oumuamua is of alien origin. Gertz commented:

The Drake equation was predicated upon the notion that there is a finite number of currently existing alien civilizations ensconced among the stars, some of whom will be signaling their presence to us using radio or optical lasers. However, this ignores another school of thought which holds that ET’s far better strategy would be to send physical probes to our solar system to surveil and ultimately make contact with us. Such probes could represent information from innumerable civilizations, many of whom may have long ago perished. If this is the case, Drake’s L is irrelevant, since the probe might far outlive its progenitor, and his N reduces to one, the single probe that makes its presence known to us through which alone we might communicate with the rest of the galaxy.

Gertz’s final version of the Drake equation

What’s left is John Gertz’s updated take on the Drake equation: N = ns • fp • ntb • fl • fi • fd • L

ns is the number of spots on the sky within our field of view
fp is the fraction of stars with planets
ntb is the average number of bodies within each that could engender life
fl is the fraction of those that actually do give birth to life
fi is the fraction of systems with life that evolves technological intelligence
fd is the fraction of technological life that is detectable by any means
L is the duration of detectability

Frank Drake knew the uncertainties

Even with this new formula, as when Drake originally formulated his equation, uncertainty pervades. Gertz said:

The Drake equation sets out to determine N, the number of extant communicating civilizations. There is simply no way to determine this by any known means other than by making contact with our first ET and asking it what it might know of the matter. The failure of the Drake equation paradoxically makes a robust SETI program all the more important, since no amount of armchair speculation can determine N.

Where do SETI researchers go from here?

The plan is for radio wave and visible-light observations, combined with technological advances that will eventually let scientists survey one million nearby stars, the entire galactic plane and 100 nearby galaxies. Dedicated wide-field telescopes are one of the items on Gertz’s wish list for SETI.

Breakthrough Listen, a project Gertz is currently involved in, is a good start. It is the largest-ever scientific research program aimed at finding evidence of civilizations beyond Earth. Breakthrough Listen scans the radio spectrum with the world’s most powerful instruments. Gertz said:

Breakthrough Listen is a game-changer. Because of it, more SETI is accomplished in a single day than was ever before accomplished in a full year.

Funding will be the key to continued searches, and, with a lot of planning and maybe a little luck, to future success in finding an intelligent civilization in the wider universe.

Read more: SETI Institute expands search for aliens with VLA

Video resources on the Drake equation

For a more in-depth discussion about the Drake equation, watch the following two-part videos of 25 minutes each hosted by David Kipping of Columbia University.

[youtube] [youtube]

Bottom line: May 28, 2023, would be the 93rd birthday of astronomer Frank Drake. Drake was an early visionary in the search for other civilizations in our Milky Way galaxy and formulator of the Drake equation. In May 2021, John Gertz suggested reformulating the Drake equation.

Source: A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe

Source: The Drake equation at 60



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