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Humans may be extinct in 2026

Narwhal19 April 24, 2023

Global temperature rise

The image below illustrates the threat that the temperature rise may exceed 3°C. The blue trend, based on January 1880 to March 2023 data, shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2036. The magenta trend, based on January 2010 to March 2023 data, better reflects relatively short-term variables such as El Niño and illustrates how 3°C could be crossed as early as in 2025.

The above image uses monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature anomalies versus 1886-1915 that are further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base, as also illustrated by the image below.

What could cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C in 2025? This has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Briefly, such a rise could be triggered by relatively short-term variables such as the upcoming El Niño, high sunspots and extra water vapor in the atmosphere due to the eruption of a submarine volcano. Together, they could raise temperatures by more than half a degree Celsius, triggering the compound impact of further events including feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity and tipping points getting crossed, such as the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point.

Indeed, rising temperatures threaten to cause massive loss of sea ice followed by eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. This threat is further illustrated by the image below.

Sea Surface Temperature World (60S-60N)

April 22, 2023, marked the point where the world sea surface temperature (SST between 60°South and 60°North) had been at 21°C or higher for as many as 35 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981.

Earlier (on April 4, 2023), the sea surface temperature in 2023 (black line) was as much as 0.3°C higher than in 2022 (orange line) and this has occurred while we’re only just entering the upcoming El Niño.

Sea Surface Temperature North Atlantic

The situation is especially critical in the North Atlantic. Vast amounts of ocean heat in the North Atlantic are moving toward the Arctic, threatening to cause rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September and, as illustrated by the image below, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on April 20 was as much as 0.5°C higher in 2023 (black) than in 2022 (orange).

As we’re moving into the upcoming El Niño, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more and more heat over the next few years, i.e. more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly

Temperatures have been rising especially fast on land in the Northern Hemisphere, where most people are living. As temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events can be expected that can make life hard, if not impossible, even at higher latitudes.

The image below shows monthly anomalies up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on January 1850-March 2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on October 2010-March 2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 3°C in 2024 and a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Note that the image displays anomalies versus 1901-2000, anomalies versus pre-industrial would be significantly higher.

[ from earlier post ]

Extinction

Humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.