New Study Clashes With Official Data: Hurricanes NOT More Frequent, Intense
A new study by computer modelers published in Nature Climate Change has concluded that hurricanes impacting the US have become more intense in recent decades and will become stronger in the future.
The paper, “Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts” by Xi et al, bases its conclusions on probabilistic modeling. [emphasis, links added]
However, the actual historic US hurricane data does not support such conclusions. According to the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s latest review:
“There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes”
The graph above shows all storms since 1851 that have made landfall as hurricanes on the US mainland, either major (defined as Category 3 and over on the Saffir-Simpson scale) or other. Neither major hurricane series shows any evidence of increasing frequency.
Nor are any such trends evident in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.
The paper’s findings have been publicized in many parts of the US media and elsewhere, but none have challenged the fatal flaws in the computer modeling, nor have they provided readers with the actual hurricane data to enable them to form their own opinion.
In reality, the actual data tells a totally different story – US hurricanes are not increasing in frequency or intensity on multi-decadal and century scales.
The Global Warming Policy Foundation recently published its periodic review of hurricane activity worldwide.
The author, climate writer Paul Homewood, says that official data is absolutely clear: they are not getting worse. Indeed, some evidence shows they are less active in recent years.
“2021 and 2022 recorded the lowest number of both hurricanes and major hurricanes globally for any two-year period since 1980, and this comes against long-term hurricane activity trends that are essentially flat.”
And Homewood calls on journalists to start reporting these undisputed facts to the public:
“While scientists are quite clear that we are not seeing a dramatic increase in hurricanes or even any increase at all, the public has been conned into thinking that tropical storms are getting worse. It’s high time the mainstream media came clean and told people what is really going on.”
For an up-to-date study of empirical hurricane trends, see Paul Homewood: The 2022 Hurricane Season (pdf)
Trackback from your site.