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World may pass 1.5°C warming threshold in less than a decade

Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold in the next nine years, according to a new report released November 10, 2022 by the Global Carbon Project at the 27th Conference of Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most prevalent among the six major greenhouse gasses causing global warming and the levels of CO2 emissions are expected to continue to rise in 2022 as well, reports the Global Carbon Project.

Global Carbon Project comes up with country-level estimates of CO2 emissions every year during the climate conference. According to the report, the total carbon dioxide emissions, excluding those from land use changes and deforestation, is around 36.6 billion tonnes. This is about 1 per cent higher than the previous year.


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The CO2 released from deforestation would likely contribute another 3.9 billion tonnes to the mix. The report also said that India is estimated to show a rise of 6 per cent in its CO2 emissions, while China, which is the leading emitter of CO2, showed a mere decrease of 1 per cent from the previous year.

It is also interesting to note that the United States, being the second largest emitter, is projected to increase its CO2 emission by another 1.5 per cent.

In the case of India, emissions from oil are projected to rise up by 10 per cent and even though natural gas can bring down the emissions by a bit, it won’t be enough to make a significant change.

Global CO2 emissions had dropped significantly in 2020, compared to the previous year, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

But this year, the emissions are expected to go beyond the 2019 levels. A World Meteorological Organization report, which was released earlier this year, also noted a 50 per cent chance for the global temperatures to temporarily go beyond 1.5°C within the next 5 years.

The latest report is essentially cementing the fact that our world is racing towards the 1.5°C mark as the policies and promises still stay just on paper.

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