The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments
The upcoming El Niño
The above image shows a forecast for August 2023 of the sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, from tropicaltidbits.com. The forecast shows temperatures that are higher than average (based on 1984-2009 model climatology) for the tropical Pacific region indicative of an El Niño event.
By contrast, the above forecast for November 2022 shows temperatures in the tropical Pacific region that are much lower than average, indicating that we’re still in the depths of a persistent La Niña.
By comparison, the above nullschool.net image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly for August 15, 2022, i.e. less than three months ago, when sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific region were similar to what they are now, while anomalies in the Arctic were much higher than they are now.
The NOAA image on the right confirms that we’re still in the depths of a persistent La Niña. NOAA predicts a transition out of La Niña. Note that the NOAA forecast only goes up to May/June/July 2023.
Methane keeps rising at accelerating pace
Furthermore, there are a number of events and developments that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, including greenhouse gas emissions that keep rising. Methane is particularly important, due to its high potency as a greenhouse gas, and its abundance has also been growing at accelerating pace over the past few years.
The above image shows recent methane daily averages at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, ranging from 1900 ppb to nearly 2000 ppb.
The above image shows recent methane daily averages at Barrow, Alaska, ranging from 2000 ppb to over 2100 ppb.
As an earlier post mentions, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming.
The post points at a recent analysis that finds a stronger impact than previously thought for liquid water path adjustment, which supports the 2016 warning that by 2026 there could be a 1.9°C temperature rise due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, while there could be additionally be a 0.6°C temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires by 2026.
There could also be additional temperature rises due to increased water vapor, nitrous oxide and further gases.
When including the temperature rise that has already unfolded from pre-industrial and the impact of all such events and developments, the temperature could rise by more than 10°C over the next few years, corresponding with a CO₂e of over 1200 ppm, which implies that the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C by 2026.