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Forecasting our Future: UC Davis professor models how policy decisions affect the severity of climate change – KCRA Sacramento

The climate crisis is a global issue requiring global solutions to mitigate the severity of its impacts and to adapt to the changes the planet is already seeing.Global cooperation is certainly no easy task. But Dr. Fran Moore, a professor with UC Davis’ Environmental Science and Policy department is modeling how effective proposed solutions to climate change may or may not be.”If we think about what climate change is going to look like over the rest of this century, what human communities do and what nations do to regulate, or not, greenhouse gases is really a primary determinant of the climate future we’re going to face,” Moore said.Many climate models currently account for human greenhouse gas emissions. Those emissions are the source of the climate crisis problem. Moore’s research hopes to provide ways for climate models to account for how we can also be a part of the solution.There are currently countless climate initiatives being adopted around the world. Public opinions on climate change are also shifting and influencing national policies. Moore’s research attempts to account for all of that by modeling close to 100,000 different future scenarios based on which actions are taken and which aren’t. She says that she was pleasantly surprised by what those models showed.”We’re really able to put much lower probabilities on these pretty bad outcomes of three to four degrees Celsius of warming by 2100,” Moore said. Global warming on that scale would be catastrophic for life as we know it. “We find a much more optimistic range of temperature, somewhere between two and three degrees of warming by 2100, ” Moore said.That level of warming will still come with substantial impacts for Northern California including threats from sea level rise, intensifying droughts and longer, more intense heat waves. That will require significant adaptation work, but Moore prefers to focus on the positives.”Two to three degrees is by no means ideal,” Moore said. “But it does really change how I think about the climate change problem and even how much we’ve already done to address it. I think it’s important to build on that success and to accelerate that momentum.”That momentum doesn’t all have to come from sweeping climate and emissions policies. Some of it can be gained at the individual level.”If you personally undertake a costly behavior change that reflects your values in terms of reducing global carbon emissions, that signals to other people in your social network the values that you hold and that can actually be very persuasive for other people,” Moore said. But to be sure, collective and systemic action is paramount in finding the best possible climate future for the global population.

The climate crisis is a global issue requiring global solutions to mitigate the severity of its impacts and to adapt to the changes the planet is already seeing.

Global cooperation is certainly no easy task. But Dr. Fran Moore, a professor with UC Davis’ Environmental Science and Policy department is modeling how effective proposed solutions to climate change may or may not be.

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“If we think about what climate change is going to look like over the rest of this century, what human communities do and what nations do to regulate, or not, greenhouse gases is really a primary determinant of the climate future we’re going to face,” Moore said.

Many climate models currently account for human greenhouse gas emissions. Those emissions are the source of the climate crisis problem. Moore’s research hopes to provide ways for climate models to account for how we can also be a part of the solution.

There are currently countless climate initiatives being adopted around the world. Public opinions on climate change are also shifting and influencing national policies. Moore’s research attempts to account for all of that by modeling close to 100,000 different future scenarios based on which actions are taken and which aren’t.

She says that she was pleasantly surprised by what those models showed.

“We’re really able to put much lower probabilities on these pretty bad outcomes of three to four degrees Celsius of warming by [the year] 2100,” Moore said.

Global warming on that scale would be catastrophic for life as we know it.

“We find a much more optimistic range of temperature, somewhere between two and three degrees of warming by 2100, ” Moore said.

That level of warming will still come with substantial impacts for Northern California including threats from sea level rise, intensifying droughts and longer, more intense heat waves. That will require significant adaptation work, but Moore prefers to focus on the positives.

“Two to three degrees is by no means ideal,” Moore said. “But it does really change how I think about the climate change problem and even how much we’ve already done to address it. I think it’s important to build on that success and to accelerate that momentum.”

That momentum doesn’t all have to come from sweeping climate and emissions policies. Some of it can be gained at the individual level.

“If you personally undertake a costly behavior change that reflects your values in terms of reducing global carbon emissions, that signals to other people in your social network the values that you hold and that can actually be very persuasive for other people,” Moore said.

But to be sure, collective and systemic action is paramount in finding the best possible climate future for the global population.

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