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Menopausal Mother Nature

News about Climate Change and our Planet

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Methane rise is accelerating

Keep in mind that this 1909.3 ppb reading is for November 2021; it now is March 2022. Furthermore, NOAA’s data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.The image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1936 ppb at 321 mb on March 7, 2022 pm.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide levels are currently very high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below that shows carbon dioxide levels approaching 430 parts per million (ppm) recently at Barrow, Alaska. 
Clouds tipping point

The danger is that high greenhouse gas levels could combine to push the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) level over the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point in one spot, causing low-altitude clouds in various neighboring areas to break up, propagating break-up of clouds in further areas, as discussed at the clouds feedback page.

The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1958 ppb on October 25, 2021 am at 295 mb. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 391.6 ppm CO₂e. Together with a global mean CO₂ level of 420 ppm, that’s 811.6 ppm CO₂e, i.e. only 388.4 ppm CO₂e away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point. 

An additional 5 Gt of methane from an abrupt eruption of the seafloor could raise the global mean methane concentration by almost 2000 ppb which, at a 1-year GWP of 200, would translate into an extra 400 ppm CO₂e, thus pushing the joint impact of just two greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) above the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point. 

Seafloor methane

Warnings about the potential for seafloor methane releases have been given repeatedly, such as in this 2017 analysis, in this 2019 analysis (image below) and in a recent analysis (2022).

Conclusions

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