We Knew About the Disproportionate Danger of COVID to the Elderly From The Very Beginning
April 13, 2021, 12:28 pm
In some recent debates over the Great Barrington Declaration, critics of that proposal argued that we didn’t know that COVID was only a relatively small threat to healthy people under 65. But we did know, as early as April or at worst May. I know I was writing about it. Just think of all the articles you have read with the theme of “everyone, not just old people, need to be terrified of COVID” and then look at this:
People over 65 make up only 18% of the UK population but clearly accounted for 90+% of the deaths.
Here is the calculus as I see it: I was 58 when this all started. Let’s assume I have 20 good years. Hiding in my home and not doing the things I enjoy for a whole year, as preached by Fauci and company, would have wasted 5% of my remaining life. Instead, by ignoring them and going about my business, I was taking perhaps a 1/2000 chance of dying to the disease or 0.05% (I actually think given my health and weight that this is exaggerated). These two numbers are not even close. They are not one but two full orders of magnitude apart. When presented with these numbers, and given my preferences, it would have been wildly irrational (or demonstrated extreme risk aversion) for me to follow the advice and dictats of the coronabros.