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North Hole 2020?

Will there be open water at the North Pole in August 2020?

Above images show, on the left, sea surface temperatures on August 4, 2020, with a forecast on the right for August 9, 2020.

On the image at the left, the center of the Arctic Basin (pale-blue) still has a sea surface temperature below 0°C (or 32°F).

Around that pale-blue area is a blue area where sea surface temperatures are 0 to 2°C (or 32 to 35.6°F).

Seawater will freeze and stay frozen at about −2 °C (28 °F). The sea surface of the Arctic Ocean contains less salt, so the sea ice will stay frozen longer, even as temperatures rise, but it will melt at 0°C (or 32°F).

As the images show, the blue area where sea surface temperatures are at or above 0°C (or 32°F), is encroaching upon the pale-blue area at the center of the Arctic Basin, and appears to reach the North Pole at August 9, 2020.

Hat-tip to Albert Kallio for pointing at this.

Above combination image shows the running twelve-month averages of global-mean (top) and European-mean (bottom) surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to July 2020.

The shape of current anomalies is very similar to the peak reached around 2016. This is alarming because the peak around 2016 was reached under El Niño conditions, whereas the July 2020 temperature was reached under ENSO-neutral conditions, as the image below illustrates.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume, as at August 4, 2020.

The navy.mil animation below was run on August 5, 2020, and shows sea ice thickness over 30 days (last 8 frames are forecasts for August 6 – August 13, 2020).

Ominously, the MetOp-1 sattelite recorded a mean methane level of 1917 ppb at 293 mb on August 4, 2020 pm, with high methane levels visible over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS).

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Danish Meteorological Institute – 5 Day Ocean Forecast – Universal (Greenwich) Time
http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php

• Danish Meteorological Institute – sea ice thickness and volume
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• Copernicus – Surface air temperature for July 2020
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2020

•  NOAA – ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Predictions – August 3, 2020
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

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