Scheffer, M. et al. Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems. Science 347, 1317–1319 (2015).

Johnstone, J. F. et al. Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience. Front. Ecol. Environ. 14, 369–378 (2016).

Hughes, T. P. et al. Coral reefs in the Anthropocene. Nature 546, 82–90 (2017).

Kleypas, J. A. et al. Larval connectivity across temperature gradients and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3539–3549 (2016).

Holbrook, S. J. et al. Recruitment drives spatial variation in recovery rates of resilient coral reefs. Sci Rep. 8, 7338 (2018).

Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature 556, 492–496 (2018).

King, A. D., Karoly, D. J. & Henley, B. J. Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 412–416 (2017).

Hughes, T. P. et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene. Science 359, 80–83 (2018).

Heron, S. F. et al. Impacts of Climate Change on World Heritage Coral Reefs: Update to the First Global Scientific Assessment. http://whc.unesco.org/en/news/1878 (UNESCO World Heritage Centre, 2018).

Figueiredo, J., Baird, A. H. & Connolly, S. R. Synthesizing larval competence dynamics and reef-scale retention reveals a high potential for self-recruitment in corals. Ecology 94, 650–659 (2013).

Ayre, D. J. & Hughes, T. P. Climate change, genotypic diversity and gene flow in reef-building corals. Ecol. Lett. 7, 273–278 (2004).

Underwood, J. N., Smith, L. D., van Oppen, M. J. H. & Gilmour, J. P. Ecologically relevant dispersal of corals on isolated reefs: implications for managing resilience. Ecol. Appl. 19, 18–29 (2009).

Baird, A. H., Guest, J. R. & Willis, B. L. Systematic and biogeographical patterns in the reproductive biology of scleractinian corals. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 40, 551–571 (2009).

Hughes, T. P. et al. Ecological memory modifies the cumulative impact of recurrent heatwaves. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 40–43 (2019).

Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature 543, 373–377 (2017).

Connell, J. H. Disturbance and recovery of coral assemblages. Coral Reefs 16, S101–S113 (1997).

Osborne, K. et al. Delayed coral recovery in a warming ocean. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 3869–3881 (2017).

Connolly, S. R. & Baird, A. H. Estimating dispersal potential for marine larvae: dynamic models applied to scleractinian corals. Ecology 91, 3572–3583 (2010).

Figueiredo, J., Baird, A. H. & Connolly, S. R. Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 498–502 (2014).

Matz, M. V., Treml, E. A., Aglyamova, G. V. & Bay, L. K. Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral. PLOS Genet. 14, e1007220 (2018).

Hock, K. et al. Connectivity networks reveal the risks of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks on the Great Barrier Reef. J. Appl. Ecol. 51, 1188–1196 (2014).

Howells, E. J., Berkelmans, R., van Oppen, M. J., Willis, B. L. & Bay, L. K. Historical thermal regimes define limits to coral acclimatization. Ecology 94, 1078–1088 (2013).

Hendry, A. P. Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics (Princeton Univ. Press, New Jersey, 2016).

Sweatman, H., Delean, S. & Syms, C. Assessing loss of coral cover on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef over two decades, with implications for longer term-trends. Coral Reefs 30, 521–531 (2011).

Loya, Y. et al. Coral bleaching: the winners and the losers. Ecol. Lett. 4, 122–131 (2001).

Álvarez-Noriega, M. et al. Contrasting patterns of changes in abundance following a bleaching event between juvenile and adult scleractinian corals. Coral Reefs 37, 527–532 (2018).

Gilmour, J. P., Smith, L. D., Heyward, A. J., Baird, A. H. & Pratchett, M. S. Recovery of an isolated coral reef system following severe disturbance. Science 340, 69–71 (2013).

Allen, M. et al. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C. http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/ (IPCC, 2018).

Australian Institute of Marine Science. Long-Term Reef Monitoring Program: Annual Summary Report on Coral Reef Condition for 2017/18. https://www.aims.gov.au/reef-monitoring/gbr-condition-summary-2017–2018 (AIMS, 2018)

West, J. M. & Salm, R. V. Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: implications for coral reef conservation and management. Conserv. Biol. 17, 956–967 (2003).

Hughes, T. P. et al. Patterns of recruitment and abundance of corals along the Great Barrier Reef. Nature 397, 59–63 (1999).

Bates, D., Maechler, M., Bolker, B. & Walker, S. Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4. J. Stat. Softw. 67, 1–48 (2015).

Baird, A. H. et al. Latitudinal variation in reproductive synchrony in Acropora assemblages: Japan vs Australia. Galaxea 11, 101–108 (2009).