Study Pours Cold Water On Sea-Rise Apocalypse
Scientists who made apocalyptic warnings that the sea level could rise more than two meters this century were probably wrong, according to a new assessment.
Researchers at King’s College London found that it would be closer to one meter by 2100 because Antarctica’s towering ice cliffs were less likely to collapse than had been claimed by US scientists.
The revised prediction challenges a study in 2016 by Penn State University claiming that Antarctic melting alone could contribute more than a meter to the rise in sea level.
Tamsin Edwards, lecturer in physical geography at King’s and lead author of the study published in Nature, said: “Unstable ice cliffs in Antarctica were proposed as a cause of the unstoppable collapse of large parts of the ice sheet in the past. They were, therefore, also predicted to cause rapidly rising seas with global warming in our near future. But we’ve re-analyzed the data and found this isn’t the case.”
Even if greenhouse gas emissions continued at a high rate, there was only a 5 percent chance of Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 39cm by 2100. It was most likely to be 15cm, meaning that the total increase would be about 120cm — still higher than the 98cm forecast in 2013 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Read more at The Times
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